The Demand Institute, a nonprofit think tank operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen, predicts an uneven recovery for the U.S. housing sector over the next five years. The study says it wont be until 2018 that the median price of single-family homes will be near the peak reached in 2006, before the housing crisis began. But some states will get there faster than others.
The study showed that among the 50 largest metros where housing prices are expected to appreciate between 2012 and 2018, the top five metros (Memphis, Tampa, Jacksonville, Milwaukee, and St. Louis) will see increases averaging 32 percent. The five cities projected to have the lowest price appreciation (Washington, D.C., Oklahoma City, Denver, Minneapolis, and Phoenix) will see gains of around 11 percent.
"The strength of the local housing market is among the most telling metrics that helps us assess community health and well-being," says Louise Keely, chief research officer at the Demand Institute and co-author of the report. Researchers analyzed 2,200 cities and towns in the U.S. and conducted interviews with 10,000 consumers for the report.
The report notes that the double-digit price increases of the last two years were largely driven by investors buying up distressed homes to meet rising rental demands. But the report notes that the main driver of housing demand for the next five years will be the formation of new households, particularly as the economy strengthens and employment rises.
Source: “U.S. Housing Recovery Uneven Across Markets, Study Finds,” Reuters (Feb. 26, 2014)