Welcome to my blog.

My goal is to share real estate market news and information as it affects the greater Indianapolis area.  My dominant area of expertise is the North East corridor.  This includes Fishers, Noblesville, Carmel and Geist. 

Not only will I bring local information to this blog but also information that affects the greater real estate market. 

Enjoy, profit and be informed.

 

 

Jan. 1, 2022

Market ending 12/31/2021

Welcome 2022!  Let's hope that this year has less turmoil than the last two.  Between COVID, inflation, supply chain shortages, labor shortages and more...we're hopefully in for a better year.  I sure hope so!

Please remember, my data sample is ONLY for Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville and Westfield between $200k and $600k.  This represents 78% of all homes sold in SE Hamilton County.

This last month has been rather interesting.  We have seen a significant shrink in the inventory compared to previous months.  This market shrinkage started in November.

This is the current listings in our sample data.  You can see we dropped significantly.  The number of available homes also dropped by 5% to only 20%.  Previously, 1 in 4 houses was available.  Now it is 1 in 5 or 20%.

So what's the cause?  Personally, I think it's more seasonal than anything else.  Unless you REALLY have to, most people don't want to move during the holidays...hence, less homes are on the market right now.  I DO expect this to increase over the next 4 weeks.  Stay tuned and we'll see if I'm right on that one.

The overall sales have actually stayed strong but there was a decline in December.  This graph shows 436 homes closed in December...I'm guessing most of those in early December.

Average price of homes sold climbed about 1% so the trend is still climbing.  Does the broader inflation issue effect the housing market?  I think indirectly it does.  The cost of building materials continues to soar pushing up the price of new construction.  As the existing market is, in effect, in direct competition to the new construction market, it will respond accordingly.  I'm HOPING this will stabilize.  What will stabilize the market is INCREASED INVENTORY!  Basic laws of supply and demand will impact pricing. 

What is driving prices right now are two primary things:

1.  Lack of inventory which feeds...

2.  Competition resulting over list bidding wars, waived inspections, appraisal gaps and many concessions.

The average sales price vs list price rose only slightly.  We were declining (possible softening of the market) consistently since June 2021 with the exception of October.  January will be interesting to see if the this stat will increase.  Pay attention to this one!

Lastly, Average Days on Market had spiked to 18 but fell back to 16 in December.  That could certainly be a supply issue.  With less homes on the market, there is more competition for those thus it's reasonable to they they won't last long.  It's consistent with supply/demand theory.

I look optimistically at 2022!  Honestly, I'm hoping the market becomes more balanced.  With a strong seller side market, it skews the market prices unrealistically and makes it extremely difficult for buyers.  Be careful of auction fever!  When the market equalizes, we want to be careful we don't buyer's remorse and be upside down on our home values.

If I or my team can be of assistance, please don't hesitate to contact me, Jen or Suzanne.  We'd love to help you navigate thru this market.

Click below on the city icons below.  These are the current homes available for your viewing convenience.

Robert Haynes, Managing Broker
317-250-7213 cell/text
rhaynes.realtor@gmail.com 

These homes are available RIGHT NOW!

 

Posted in Market Trends
Oct. 30, 2021

Market ending 10/30/21

Our market sample is SE Hamilton County (Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield and Carmel).  I only sample data from $200k-$600k since the majority of our sales are in this range.

The month of October has been interesting for sure!  Total sales for the month actually dropped by 12.4% down to 407.  Could this be a sign of slow down in the 4th quarter?  Perhaps but let's dig farther.

Average prices jumped $10,000 to $368k.  This is significant especially when you consider the first 8 months was fairly stable, then a spike in September then again in October.  It could be a sign that the inventory levels are such that people are not finding suitable housing their price range and are "upping" their limit.

so now let's consider Sales price vs List price.  This actually rose in October to almost 103%.  This means that sellers are getting on the average 3% over their asking price.  The trend had started down perhaps indicating a softening but...is this an anomaly or a trend reversal?  Remember, one tick mark doth not make a trend.

Considering days on market.  We started to see this climbing back up indicating a softening.  However, October showed it go back to 12 days...again perhaps so inventory shortage causing competition and scrambling to get a home.

The active market market actually shrunk a bit.  Last month 24% of all listings were available (active) and 76% were pending.  Currently there are only 22% are available.  

You can see that overall the number of listing actually went UP in the last week but the actual percentage of those that are pending went up also.

My take:  This is still a very robust market for sellers.  Some variables that can and do effect the market:

1.  interest rates
2.  political climate
3.  seasons (we ARE going into the holidays)
4.  weather
5.  fear/confidence in the market

For sellers, there are 5 criteria that determine your marketability:

1.  Structure/habitability of the home
2.  Location
3.  Condition
4.  Presentation
5.  Price

The first two, you can't control much.  The next 3 are very much in your control.  The great equalizer is price.  Price is the catalyst that fuels most sales.  I've always said "I can sell ANY livable home in 12 hours.  You may not like the price but I'll get it sold."  (I may even buy it myself!).

We do not have a clear direction one way or the other.  The holidays MAY slow us down a bit but is that a season shift or a market shift?  Time will tell.

If I or my team can assist you in understanding this market, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. if you want a CUSTOM data analysis, please don't hesitate to ask.  It's free.

Click on any of the city icons below to see the actual homes for sale RIGHT NOW!  Maybe my team can assist you in snagging your dream home.

if you're a seller, I'd love to discuss our marketing strategy with you.

Robert Haynes, Managing Broker
317-250-7213 cell/text
rhaynes.realtor@gmail.com 

These homes are available RIGHT NOW!

 

 

Posted in Market Trends
Oct. 24, 2021

Market ending 10/23/2021

Our market sample is SE Hamilton County (Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield and Carmel).  I only sample data from $200k-$600k since the majority of our sales are in this range.

The last two weeks have been pretty benign as far as change.  We still see roughly the same 75% of all homes in our market sample are under contract.

The number of active homes actually has changed little over the last 3 weeks.  

I maintain that there are 5 indicators that will start a trend reversal:

  1. Prices stabilize
  2. Percentage of active homes that are pending decreases
  3. Days on market increases
  4. Overall number of listings increases
  5. Percentage of sales price vs list price decreases.

Here's the kicker:  Will home sales in November/December/January slow going into the holidays/Winter?  Traditionally there is a significant slow down in the market.  That being said, this may create BUYER opportunities!  When demand falls off, then the concessions (no closing costs, as is, appraisal gaps...) and over list prices will soften greatly.  In other words, when you don't have as many people clamoring for your home, you can't be as choosy!

Heads up buyers!  A window of opportunity may be upon us.

I'm changing the blog slightly.  I'm now going to track and post based on the 1st and 15th of the month.  This will allow me to give a more comprehensive overall picture of historical data that I pull mid month.  I think this will make more sense!  Stay tuned.  

If I or my team can assist you in understanding this market, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. if you want a CUSTOM data analysis, please don't hesitate to ask.  It's free.

Robert Haynes, Managing Broker
317-250-7213 cell/text
rhaynes.realtor@gmail.com 

These homes are available RIGHT NOW!

 

 

Posted in Market Trends
Oct. 9, 2021

Market week ending 10/9/2021

So this week in SE Hamilton County was very similar in trend but with a few minor exceptions.

Please keep in mind my sample data is homes between $200k and $600k for Noblesville, Carmel, Westfield and Fishers.  This represents the majority of homes sold in the SE Hamilton County Area.  Let me illustrate this:  right now, there are 1213 homes in the four cities  on the market.  132 or 10.8% of those are under $200k.  215 or 17.7% represent above $600k.  This means that the $200k-$600k range is 71.4% of the entire market or roughly 3 out of 4 homes sold in the area fall in this price range.  Any reference to homes below will be reference to the sample data.

We currently (as of 10/9/21) have 866 homes listed for sale of which 22.4% are available and not under contract.  This is a 6.6% increase over last week.  Also, overall the number of total homes is up 3.84% over last week.  Keep an eye on this.  Note the trendline is starting upward.  That's a GOOD thing.  More balance in the market will be good for everyone.

The number of active vs pending stays sold at 22%.  Said another way, out of 5 houses on the market, only one is available for sale.  The other 4 are spoken for and under contract.  

I maintain that there are 5 indicators that will start a trend reversal:

  1. Prices stabilize
  2. Percentage of active homes that are pending decreases
  3. Days on market increases
  4. Overall number of listings increases
  5. Percentage of sales price vs list price decreases.

Our sellers market continues to stay strong.  That's great IF you're a seller...but unless you're moving into assisted living, a motor home or a depressed area, most people are also buying.  Everyone is OVER PAYING for real estate right now due to the competition.  That's a given.

Here's my advice to buyers:

Know and FULLY understand the market.  If your time frame is short (say less than 5 years) consider waiting until the market stabilizes before you buy.  If you really need to buy, pay ONLY the amount you are willing to pay with no regrets and that allows you to sleep at night.  Unless the home is ridiculously over priced, you'll most likely have to go above list price and give a lot of concessions (as-is, appraisal gaps, no seller paid closing costs, etc) to JUST be competitive.  If you throw in a contingency (gotta sell my house first, for example) you most likely won't be competitive at all.  Just be sure you know and understand the market.  Our agents are specifically training to educate both buyers and sellers on the market conditions.

This too shall end.  At some point, the worm will turn.  The big question is will you be poised and ready to take full advantage of the market.  Stay tuned to this blog.  We do weekly updates with a comprehensive update at the beginning of the month.

If I or my team can assist you in understanding this market, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. if you want a CUSTOM data analysis, please don't hesitate to ask.  It's free.

Robert Haynes, Managing Broker
317-250-7213 cell/text
rhaynes.realtor@gmail.com 

These homes are available RIGHT NOW!

 

 

Posted in Market Trends
Oct. 2, 2021

Market Week Ending 10/02/2021

So the month of September ended strong for the SE Hamilton County real estate market.  My data sampling is for homes $200-600k in Noblesville, Carmel, Westfield and Fishers.  The majority of homes sold in these towns fall in this price range.  All data references this sample.

There were 465 home sold in September, almost identical to August.

Of those sold in September, the average sale price vs list price stayed at 102%.  (the seller got 102% on average of what they were asking)

The number of days on market (DOM) is slightly rising at 14.  Not a significant trend but worth noting.

What is worth noting is the average sale price increased by 6.2% or about $20k.  A rise in market price or just a fluke trend?  Not sure.  

As far as the last week goes...

The number of homes on the market actually declined by about 10%.  Last week, it was 932 with only 834 this week.  

However, the percentage of homes listed that were pending remains fairly constant.

The bottom line:  SE Hamilton real estate market is STRONG!  Really strong.  As long as inventory level stay low as they are and competition stays fierce, our market will continue to boom.  AT SOME POINT, this will be begin to change.  What we see right now is significant competition for existing homes.  I showed a $550k house today in Carmel that allowed overlapping showing.  I thought I was in a HG TV open house.  There was a LOT of traffic and it wasn't even an open house.

My theory is this:

When these things change, our market will soften and become more balanced.  Honestly, I look forward to that day!

1.  Average days on the market increase
2.  Average sale price vs list price decreases
3.  Average home prices stabilize
4.  Percentage of all listings that are pending decreases
5.  Overall number of listed homes increases

That will trigger two events:

1.  A surge in sellers trying to get in on the best market while it's still strong
2.  Buyers being more discerning in what they are offering (not giving away so many concessions)

 

I have also put together a list of active homes for the four cities below.  Click to enjoy. 

These homes are available RIGHT NOW!

If I or my team can assist you in any way, please don't hesitate to call/email me.  If you'd like a custom search, I'll be glad to do that at no charge.

 

 

Robert Haynes
Managing Broker
317-250-7213
rhaynes.realtor@gmail.com

Posted in Market Trends
Sept. 27, 2021

Market week ending 9/25/2021

This week continued to see strong seller market trends.  The number of pending sales increased by 2% to 81%.  That's been fairly consistent. 

This means that 4 out of 5 houses on the market right now are already under contract.  Said another way, only 20% of the homes on the market are available and there are a LOT of buyers out there who are willing to pay top dollar and make a lot of concessions.

We are still seeing:

  1. Sales prices about 102% of list
  2. Waived inspections or "as is" purchases
  3. Appraisal gaps (home can appraise for less than purchase price and buyer is ok with that within limits)
  4. Escalation clauses

It's a GREAT market for sellers IF you don't have to buy something.  If you do, you'll get more for your home but will conversely pay more for the home you purchase.

The trend for listed home remains strong.  We have almost identical homes for sale and corresponding distribution of list vs pending over last week.